Monday, October 1, 2012

Market update - week ending - 9/30/2012


Haven't had much of a time last couple of weeks but thought at least, I should put in a quick update. 

ETF Status Notes
TLTLong
Stop Loss: Close below 118
DBA Long Stop Loss: Close below 29
SPY Long Stop loss on a close below 133
UNG Long Stop loss on a close below 17.5
GLD LongStop loss on a close below 153. 

Friday, September 14, 2012

Market update - week ending - 09/14/2012


Bond (TLT) is no longer long. Signals continue to be long for all other asset classes.
Fed's QE3 announcement took all asset classes further into the long territory. 

ETF Status Notes
TLTCash
Waiting for next signal
DBA Long Stop Loss: Close below 29
SPY Long Stop loss on a close below 133
UNG Long Stop loss on a close below 17.5
GLD LongStop loss on a close below 153. 

Saturday, September 1, 2012

Market update - Week ending - 08/31/2012

All asset class continue to be long.

UNG had a bit of a whipsaw during the middle of the week where it closed below 18 on Aug 27th. and was back above 18 at COB (close of business) on Aug 29th. Signals continue to be long for all asset class.

ETF Status Notes
TLT
Long
Stop Loss: Close below 120
DBA Long Stop Loss: Close below 29
SPY Long Stop loss on a close below 132.5
UNG Long Stop loss on a close below 17.5
GLD LongStop loss on a close below 153. 

Stay long and stay strong!

Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Market Update - Every asset class is LONG! - 8/22/2012

Have you seen this happen before? I haven't.

Every asset class is LONG!

A delightful situation for those who like diversifying. Perfect time to buy all asset classes, if one hasn't already done. Subsequently, reallocate more into the ones that outperform! 

Nothing can get easier than this. Does it?
ETF Status Notes
TLT
Long
Stop Loss: Close below 120
DBA Long Stop Loss: Close below 29
SPY Long Stop loss on a close below 132.5
UNG Long Stop loss on a close below 18
GLD LongStop loss on a close below 153.

Friday, August 17, 2012

Market update - week ending - 8/17/2012


There is no change to the overall structure of the market. 
Bonds (TLT) continues to underperform. 
Stock (SPY), Agriculture (DBA), and Natural gas (UNG) continue to remain long. 
Gold (GLD) continues to be neutral. 

ETF Status Notes
TLT No position Waiting for next signal
DBA Long Stop Loss: Close below 29
SPY Long Stop loss on a close below 132.5
UNG Long Stop loss on a close below 18
GLD No position Buy on a close above 159. Subsequently, stop loss on a close below 154.16.

Concepts that are worth learning and applying to your trading strategies:
  • Trend is your friend: Buy high and sell higher
  • Goal is not to make more money but how to loose less: In other words, capital preservation is much more important than an attempt to make more money.
  • Have a plan and follow it: Know your exit points for all longs and shorts you hold.
  • If you have a trading strategy, follow it. Importantly, you must also know when not to follow it. Have fun!

Sunday, August 12, 2012

Ratio charts - A powerful tool for capital preservation


You will not see many texts or articles around Ratio charts. However, many traders consider that as a serious and important tool to decide how to allocate their assets. In simple terms, Ratio charts are simply charts that divide one scrip with that of another. As an example, if you divided SPY with that of PTTRX, and plotted the trend, it would provide you with a graph that would present the relative performance of SPY against Pimco's bond fund PTTRX.

An article Relative Strength Today: Ratio Charts by Ed Carlson that is a good tutorial and worth a read.

Now let's analyze the Ratio chart of SPY and PTTRX below with a simple rule: When the 100 day minima is breached downward, allocate heavily in PTTRX and reduce exposure to SPY. Likewise, when the ratio value goes above previous breached 100 days minima, allocate more heavily towards SPY and reduce exposure to PTTRX.



A very simple strategy like the one noted above would have resulted in identifying the macro picture of bonds outperforming index in 2000 and 2008 well before the crash. The current macro picture continues to favor SPY instead of bond and a crash (as touted by several financial pundits) is not immediately visible. Unless the 100day minima of Index versus Bond is breached, stay strong, safe and invest in equities.

Saturday, August 11, 2012

Market update - Week ending - 8/10/2012


The theme is that most asset classes are in the long territory.  
Specifically SPY, DBA and UNG are long. GLD is neutral. 
Bond (TLT)is now neutral as well after being a significant under performer last week. 

ETF Status Notes
TLT Cash Waiting for next signal
DBA Long Stop Loss: Close below 29
SPY Long Stop loss on a close below 132.5 (reduced the stop instead of increasing it, willing to take a little more risk to avoid whipsaws)
UNG Long Stop loss on a close below 18.
GLD No position Buy on a close above 159. Subsequently, stop loss on a close below 154.16.