Revised targets:
AAPL - 300 (Eoy 2010)
GOOG - 900 (Mid 2011)
SPY - 130 (Eoy 2010)
The structural bull market in stocks remains intact and will continue to be good until SPY breaks its support at 96.94.
Stay long and stay strong!
Saturday, December 26, 2009
Saturday, December 19, 2009
Update on GLD
GLD is precariously placed at its 50-day SMA. There was a massive correction of 4% with very large volumes on 12/4.
GLD really has two support levels: $100 (+-2%) and then $95 (+-2%).
In the next week, if retracement continues, it will definitely mark the beginning of mean reversion that can go all the way upto $95.
Any breach beyond $95, will designate beginning of bear market for GLD.
Strategy:
#1 - Short term downside is likely based on high-volume
#2 - Hold GLD positions but not add to it
#3 - $95 on GLD will mark a pitched battle between bulls and bear -- participate in it.
#4 - If you are a GLD bull, double down at $95 with a very strict stop-loss of 2-3%
GLD really has two support levels: $100 (+-2%) and then $95 (+-2%).
In the next week, if retracement continues, it will definitely mark the beginning of mean reversion that can go all the way upto $95.
Any breach beyond $95, will designate beginning of bear market for GLD.
Strategy:
#1 - Short term downside is likely based on high-volume
#2 - Hold GLD positions but not add to it
#3 - $95 on GLD will mark a pitched battle between bulls and bear -- participate in it.
#4 - If you are a GLD bull, double down at $95 with a very strict stop-loss of 2-3%
Sunday, December 6, 2009
Near 4% Gold correction -- what does it mean?
Friday, Dec 4th was a significant correction day for gold. I pulled trigger on some of my gold positions when the correction became too severe at one point of time. The correction did find me napping. I don't like emotional trade anymore, but I did end up doing one today. It made me wonder and I resolved to myself that I need to do a little more homework going forward so that I am always prepared for upto 10% correction the next day.
Here is what I have found based on my analysis:
#1 - Bonds didn't strengthen while gold corrected. Even though bonds have reverted to mean, there are hardly any buyers. Bond yield is going up and is at its 2year SMA.
#2 - Gold was in an overbought period with a 20% appreciation in last 50 days. A correction was on the cards so this should have hardly come as a surprise
#3 - Unless gold depreciates by more than 6% in comparison to index, gold will still be outperforming index in a significant way on a trailing 50 day basis.
#4 - Gold (GLD) has a strong support around $100, so continued correction upto 10-12% will not change the structural bull market in gold upto that point
#5 - Central banks have been a net buyer of gold recently. Are they smoking crack? Perhaps they know something and riding on them may not be a bad idea even now.
#6 - If Gold's reversion to mean process has started (which I doubt at this time), however, I don't want to be closed to that possibility. In this case, it will retrace to its support of $950 (extrapolated value) in the next 3-6 months.
In summary, its probably best to not add to your gold positions at this time as correction is possible. However, if you already have positions it is time to HOLD and either
a) wait to add more positions when it corrects to $950-1000 or
b) enjoy the profits if it doesn't correct and keeps the upward trend.
Watch index, and gold behavior in the next 1 week, it will provide clarity on where gold is headed from here. A more than 6% correction relative to index will suggest getting out of gold and waiting for it to reach its support levels between $950-1000. ($950 preferably).
Having said all this, likely scenario I have is, an overshoot to $1400 in the next 6 months, followed by 2-3 month correction to $1200 (and $1200 will become the floor/support at that time).
Here is what I have found based on my analysis:
#1 - Bonds didn't strengthen while gold corrected. Even though bonds have reverted to mean, there are hardly any buyers. Bond yield is going up and is at its 2year SMA.
#2 - Gold was in an overbought period with a 20% appreciation in last 50 days. A correction was on the cards so this should have hardly come as a surprise
#3 - Unless gold depreciates by more than 6% in comparison to index, gold will still be outperforming index in a significant way on a trailing 50 day basis.
#4 - Gold (GLD) has a strong support around $100, so continued correction upto 10-12% will not change the structural bull market in gold upto that point
#5 - Central banks have been a net buyer of gold recently. Are they smoking crack? Perhaps they know something and riding on them may not be a bad idea even now.
#6 - If Gold's reversion to mean process has started (which I doubt at this time), however, I don't want to be closed to that possibility. In this case, it will retrace to its support of $950 (extrapolated value) in the next 3-6 months.
In summary, its probably best to not add to your gold positions at this time as correction is possible. However, if you already have positions it is time to HOLD and either
a) wait to add more positions when it corrects to $950-1000 or
b) enjoy the profits if it doesn't correct and keeps the upward trend.
Watch index, and gold behavior in the next 1 week, it will provide clarity on where gold is headed from here. A more than 6% correction relative to index will suggest getting out of gold and waiting for it to reach its support levels between $950-1000. ($950 preferably).
Having said all this, likely scenario I have is, an overshoot to $1400 in the next 6 months, followed by 2-3 month correction to $1200 (and $1200 will become the floor/support at that time).
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