Wednesday, July 8, 2009

OIL & QQQQ: are at an inflection point

QQQQ:
SMA(50) - $35.19
SMA(200) - $31.76
Having closed below the 50-day SMA, it is getting increasing likely that market will tank towards the next support level of 200-day SMA.

Question is: whether this is a fakeout. We will know in the next couple of days.

If 50-day SMA holds in the next few days, going on the long side for 10% gains would be a good idea.
However, if 50-day SMA continues to be breached, stay in cash and try testing waters at the next support level $31.76.

If 200-day SMA is breached (and you were testing it), take your losses and get out. The market will likely head towards retesting the previous lows of $26 (won't be pretty if I am having long positions from now till that time). I may think about shorting but I have resisted the temptation to try my luck on the downside.

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